David Morrison, chief market analyst In FCA, FINTICH and Financial Service Service is organized The nation trade.
Asian and European markets and FX
Asia and Pacific shares indicators achieved a mixed start for the week, as investors charged the dramatic events that did not violate the Middle East during the weekend. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng and Shanghai complex ended 0.7 %. But Australia ASX 200 and Japanese Nikkei closed 0.4 % and 0.1 %, respectively. The v contrary indicates that investors respond with caution but not uniformly, as some view American strikes as a content event instead of the beginning of a greater regional conflict. It was noticeable that there was no wholesale journey of the origins of the risk during the Monday session.
European stock indicators were modestly stable after a short period of open, as they ignored the previous weakness with the opening of futures markets in the early hours of Sunday. The movements indicate that, as in the Asian Pacific markets, investors are optimistic about events during the weekend. It seems that the prevailing opinion is that the participation of the United States will prove a military limited, but it is effective, by seriously undermining Iran’s nuclear ambitions. Investors also speculate that Iran’s ability to take revenge was strongly restricted. European stocks also obtained an elevator after some project managers in the field of manufacturing and relatively benign services from all over the region. It is worth noting that the German data came in the above expectations, although France was disappointed. UK numbers were also encouraging, especially receiving in services that have pushed more expansion lands.
Via FX, the US dollar has continued to restore Mujo after a very bad start in recent times. Less than two weeks ago, the dollar index reached its lowest level since February 2022, when it fell about 97.00. This morning has been closed in 99.00, where it is traded at its best levels since the beginning of this month. Finally, the dollar has returned to demand as a safe reduction amid geopolitical concerns. It is not so the Japanese yen, which was less in all areas. He saw the move from the yen near USDJPY in 148.00, to trade at its highest level since mid -May.
The cryptocurrency began the session under pressure after weekends, but it has since launched a decent recovery. However, the initial reaction to the escalation of the Middle East witnessed the collapse of Bitcoin less than 100,000 dollars yesterday before recovery. The ether broken than large support is about $ 2,400 during the weekend. This was followed by six weeks of merging above here, and while Ether has recovered since then, it seems that the sale may have done some technical damage.
American markets
The futures index’s futures decreased overnight, as merchants responded to the weekend news. President Trump feet the prize for everyone by declaring our participation in the Israeli -Iranian hostilities. The American action has so far been limited in bombing sorties aimed at destroying Iranian nuclear infrastructure. The strikes targeted the main facilities in Fordo, Estehan and Natanz, which surprised many investors who expected diplomatic talks to be directed after President Trump indicated on Friday that he would make a decision within two weeks.
The situation remains liquid. It is not currently the success of the American mission, and it is not certain whether the American action is ready to follow up. At the same time, there is a lot of land speculation about how Iran responds, assuming it is in a position that is allowed to do so. Investors take an optimistic view. The bottom gap overnight witnessed a decrease in the S&P 500 about 5900 to reach its lowest level since the beginning of this month. But it did not take long until the Dip buyer appears, which will send all American specialties to a positive area early in the European trading session. Last week’s prices were completed, with DOW unchanged, S&P decreased by 0.2 %, and Nasdak by 0.2 % and Russell 2000 0.4 % higher for the week.
The federal reserve meeting was generally seen as honest than expected, while the FOMC summary of economic projections suggested that there is a stagnation environment, with low economic growth expectations and inflation expectations. Once again, the Federal Reserve kept at a rate of 4.25-4.50 %, as it was since December. This was finished by President Trump, which prompted him to the state that interest rates should be less than 250 basis points, in line with the euro area. Mr. Trump’s increasing frustration by Mr. Powell leads early speculation regarding the latter’s potential. The possibilities are moved in favor of Kevin Haysit, a Trump fans, who must be a successful candidate, is likely to reduce the FBI’s funds as soon as his rear contact with the chair.
Meanwhile, there is a group of federal reserve members due to speaking today, with Mr. Powell’s appointment for two days of the certificate in Washington, starting from tomorrow. Trade and tariffs on the front pages have disappeared at the present time, but you should soon return with the approaching of July 9.
Goods and minerals
Crude Oil prices jumped up to 4 % in early trading on fears that American strikes on Iran can lead to unrest in saving, especially if Iran continues threats to prevent hormones. WTI was traded in the front month up to $ 77.70, reaching its highest levels in mid -January. However, a lot of this height has faded since then, with raw now a little closed on Friday. The markets seem to be optimistic with caution that diplomatic efforts, including the US calls to China to persuade Iran to abstain from revenge significantly, may help avoid the full energy crisis. However, the risk premium is clearly due to the price of oil. But the energy market has changed dramatically since the beginning of this century. The world is less dependent on the Middle East to obtain energy than it was, with the United States taking over the largest oil producer in the world, thanks to the developments in oil rock. It is also the case of OPEC+ has a lot of backup capacity, if it is chosen. But they are likely to be separated from the current production, preferring to benefit from as much as possible from the high price of oil, given the last weakness.
gold Gold initially jumped up after the news of the American air strikes. It rose 12 dollars from Friday near the trade near 3,390 dollars overnight. But those gains have evaporated since then. Gold fell sharply after a short period of the European Open, before buyers infiltrated some support. The inability of gold to achieve early gains may indicate that merchants do not expect to escalate from hostilities. Instead, it can simply be profit in a well -backed market. On a larger scale, prices continue to standardize, and are currently more than 4 % less than $ 3500. The Daily Macd settled directly above the neutral area, providing little direction in the short term.